Sic monui


…..twenty months ago.

I turned from being concerned about the virus to realising it was “only” as serious as relatively bad ‘flu back in April 2020.

Shortly afterwards, I realised we were stuck in a destructive cycle of policy driven by unfalsifiable computer models.

Good news! The UK government might finally be exiting that phase of insanity.

Due to some unrelated political difficulties, Boris Johnson ignored the “experts” last month so we could finally get to compare their predictions with reality.


Bill’s Opinion

The very next time somebody claims a need for action/inaction based on a computer model, defenestrate them from the third floor immediately.

At the very least, apply no credibility, none, zero, to their predictions unless and until they share the coding and assumptions applied.

Also, bear in mind experts with models can’t predict within a factor of ten the hospitalisation rate of a virus one month ahead but we know for certain the climate will be 4 degrees warmer by 2030.

It’s almost as if, I dunno, multi-variable systems are almost impossible to forecast.

It’s long past the time we have learned to never drive government policy by opaque and unfalsifiable computer models.

2 Replies to “Sic monui”

  1. If you have ever read The Caine Mutiny you will remember two pithy Navy sayings:

    1. Bullshit baffles brains.
    2. When in danger, or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.

  2. After looking up defenestrate, the third floor is less than thirty feet, or nine metres, go higher, not less than the fifth floor. If a job is worth doing, it’s worth doing well.

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