The modellers have been modelling.
Some idiot gave a laptop with Microsoft Excel installed to researchers at the University of Melbourne with, sadly, the predictable result that we now have yet another bunch of unprovable predictions and what/if scenarios to scare our politicians with.
They even got a WordPress website registered and set up, bless ‘em.
The website allows one to plug in whatever assumptions you’d like and spits out a result demanding MOAR lockdowns, masks and mandatory 17th booster shots of whatever vaccine the government procurement department managed to buy on eBay this week.
The Melbourne University report addresses some of the gaps in the Doherty modelling but it also points out the uncertainty around several factors that could make a big difference to results.
Here we go again. Repeat after me, children; multi-variable situations are almost impossible to predict. It’s an incredibly idiotic mental feat to convince yourself otherwise. Some of our worst human decisions are made as a consequence of thinking we can calculate complex probabilities.
This includes the proportion of people who get Delta that are asymptomatic and can spread the disease without knowing, and how effective the vaccines are at stopping vaccinated people from spreading the virus.
Oh, do continue…..
For example, the Doherty report assumed vaccination reduces the infection rate by 65 per cent but Melbourne University researchers believes this is too “optimistic” and they used a figure of 25 per cent on average.
And that’s it, right there. It’s over, folks. Go back to the office, open the schools, book your overseas holidays; the vaccines only reduce transmission by one quarter.
We are stuck with this thing forever. Get vaccinated if you want, take your chances if you don’t, but stop pretending this virus is not going to be around if only we could convince everyone on the planet to get the jab.
As for the fucking modellers:
“It is best practice for Governments and decision-makers to take a ‘many models’ approach to decision-making support,” the report says.
Well, they would say that, wouldn’t they. Remind me again, how do they get paid?
Bill’s Opinion
This is a mind virus now. Perhaps it always has been.
As commentator Liberator pointed out, Charles Mackay’s book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds has the perfect quotation for where we are, “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
Happily, some of my friends are slowly recovering their senses. I suspect we will never speak openly of what happened to them.
A man who wants to lead the orchestra must turn his back on the crowd. Max Lucado.
Covid will look like a meagre entree to the main course.
Evergrande and a Chinese real estate collapse is the whiff of the main course as it is placed on our table and the Covid entree scraps are brushed aside.
Military conflict doesn’t have a reliable vaccination. CCP comment recently: “Australian troops are also most likely to be the first batch of Western soldiers to waste their lives in the South China Sea” and should “prepare for the worst”
I want to get this on the record now, because when viewed in the context of the great reset it’s fairly simple to predict what’s in the pipeline for us in Australia.
Once they hit the adult targets a strategy will be needed to mop up the resistance. Employer mandates aren’t going to be enough as some people will simply fall on their sword and if enough of them do it there’s a danger of parallel structures forming, so the next wave of terror will be a new variant or whatever that “gets” the kiddies. Now, having already established that for the first time in the history of medicine, unvaccinated individuals are a potentially lethal threat to vaccinated individuals, the stage is set.
If you don’t get your kids vaccinated you’re a heartless monster, perhaps your children need to be removed from your care for their own safety. If you’re an unvaccinated adult (by now jobless, broke and probably friendless) you are become der untermensch for real now.
Public opinion is already very hostile to any objections to participating in what is still, I remind you, human trials of an experimental treatment. Thus if the state doesn’t suggest it, there will be clamour among the public for forced vaccinations and/or detention of unvaccinated adults. “Why won’t anyone think of the children!”
The only uncertainty is timing. According to this https://www.multiplex.global/projects/centre-for-national-resilience/ the Victorian unit aims to have 500 “beds” operational by the end of this year.
With the massive surveillance infrastructure we’ve put in our pockets and homes over the past decade they’ll have no problem rounding up dissenters. When they come for you it’ll be decision time. Maybe it’ll be prudent to live up to the reputation that der untermensch have been given? Either way, by that time I can’t see any positive outcome.
Any student of history should recognise the stages here. Extraordinary powers granted (by themselves, to themselves) “temporarily”. Consolidation of power through suppression of free speech, movement and gathering. A common enemy to fear and/or unite the people (initially the virus now the unvaccinated).
This doesn’t end well.
In days of yore the messenger got shot for bringing bad news. Now that’s the route to tenure, a seat in parly, and getting your mug on telly.
There is a compelling case that a global financial cataclysm was delayed by the shocks induced into the world economy by government coof policy. Trillions were pumped by the US fed in Sept-Oct 2019, and the printer was only getting warmed up.
It was clear from Q2 2020 that this virus would not be Spanish Flu 2, and ever since I been thankful our worst fears were not realized. However, everything that has occurred since – financially, politically, culturally – has me terrified. So terrified, in fact, that I cannot fully enjoy good happenings in my personal life, as there is always a voice cautioning “these are the good times, prepare now or let your wife and kids down in the future”.
The kind of monsters lurking for our civilization have been dormant for 60 years or so, and I know too much about history to blissfully ignore them, but feel paralyzed when attempting to face them.
I keep praying to be wholly, laughably wrong looking back 20 years hence.
I couldn’t agree with your sentiment more. It’s oddly reassuring to know I’m not the only one thinking “I don’t want to be a part of this (Australian) society.”