Because of a few songs wherein I spoke of their mystery, women have been exceptionally kind to my old age. Leonard Cohen.

That quote has absolutely nothing to do with the rest of this post, I just like it and it commences with “because”.

Conspiracy theorists always look for the “because”. It’s human nature to try to make sense of situations, particularly if they are causing you pain, suffering and anxiety.

It’s a fool’s errand though. The chances of someone affected by an externality to correctly guess the sequence of events leading to it are extremely unlikely.

What probably matters more is correctly observing all the pertinent facts about the present and drawing reasonable conclusions about how they might change in the future.

Some observable facts, then.

Using public health as the justification, despite 18 months of data showing it was, at a population level, a mid-severity flu and is now (with vaccines, regardless of what you may think about their safety), a very mild flu, the following changes have occurred:

  • International and domestic border closures,
  • Legislation and heavy-handed policing restricting freedom of movement, freedom of trade, freedom of association,
  • Curfews and military presence in suburban areas,
  • Legislation mandating quarantine of healthy individuals on the suspicion of infection,
  • Legislation mandating vaccinations for certain professions,
  • Closures of schools, replaced by very sub-optimal online lessons,
  • Vaccination of children against a virus that poses little threat to them,
  • Restriction of travel on several major airlines to those with proof of vaccination,
  • International airfares, for those allowed to travel, outside the budget of most people,
  • Unprecedented (there’s a word for our time!) government borrowing and economic stimulus, in the form of direct payments to business and individuals. In many cases, the government cheque is greater than the wage it replaced,
  • In those countries that have lifted some of the legislated restrictions above, the powers to re-impose them have been retained (the UK, for example).

That’s Australia today.

How might these situations change, do we think?

Borders will reopen and flights resume, but not for the plebeians for a very long time. The competition in international air travel drove prices down to a level where a middle class family could leave Australia once every second or third year. That’s not going to happen again for perhaps a decade. You’ll need a vaccination passport too.

Legislation restricting freedom of movement, trade and association will remain on the books, the powers to arbitrarily invoke the laws will be retained and used based on “cases” or new variants. Look at the decades old laws against terrorism for precedent.

Governments will not be tempted in the slightest to turn off the stimulus fire hoses. The creative destruction of free markets will be seen as a sign of policy failure. Universal Basic Income by another name will be here to stay.

Schools will re-open and close again several times based on “cases”. Masks for school kids, perhaps mandatory vaccinations too. Teachers’ unions will make demands for “safety” usually resulting in pay rises. The quality of the outcomes for pupils will be a distant footnote printed in tiny font.

Court cases will be brought by employees fired over vaccinations. They might win, they might not.

Bill’s Opinion

Don’t look for the because. You’ll drive yourself mad.

On the news every night, some idiot financial journalist will tell you “markets rose 17 points today because of new employment data”, or “fell because of new inflation data”.

Unprovable. All we can prove is markets rose or fell.

Similarly, we can’t be certain about the because of the situation we are living in now.

We can make reasonable extrapolations such as those I’ve offered above, though.

What to do then?

Here’s some suggestions:

  • Find a doctor who will give you a vaccine exemption. It might be accepted by employers, airlines, restaurants and governments for a while,
  • If you are eligible for a passport from another country, apply. Having options is wise. Ask any American male with a Canadian passport during the Vietnam draft era.
  • Consider alternative education models for your children. Take control of their curriculum and hire tutors. If you stay within the current system, focus them on what matters only. STEM.
  • Spread your assets across jurisdictions. Be nimble.
  • Perhaps move away from major population centres, if these are where all the police and army presence is focused.
  • Learn to sail. If you one day find it necessary to steal a yacht from the harbour and sail away, having the skills learned in the Day Skipper qualification would be important.

It’s all a bit tin foil hat, isn’t it?

But then, imagine a conversation between your 2019 self and your present day self.

Of course, once we’ve moved to Central Bank Digital Currencies, there will be nowhere left to hide anyway.

So enjoy your current freedoms.

16 Replies to “Because”

  1. I wonder if perhaps freedom in Australia was always an illusion. I think it was, the laws taking away our rights kept getting through parliament and due to apathy and “she’ll be right, they’ll never use that law!” we did nothing. Well now we are reaping the harvest and isn’t it a bountiful one.

    I expect to be forced out of my employment, possibly as early as before the end of the year, but maybe not until the next wave of terror commences. When the time comes I will test the waters with my Dr about an exemption though I’m not sure how that’ll go, he’s a humourless Teutonic chap (which actually makes him a good Dr).

    For me the content of the syringe is now irrelevant, my choice is being removed and the precedent this sets should deeply disturb any right minded person. As JHK recently posted:

    “We must take the vaccine in order to protect the people who already got the vax — many of them more than one shot — from catching Covid-19.

    Hold on now… you say they got multiple doses of the vax but they can still catch the disease? Yes, they can, evidently. Okay… well… what kind of vax is it that doesn’t keep you from catching the disease? Oh, a most excellent vax! And you must take it, or lose your income, forfeit your useful position in this economy, give up all the normal routines of existing in a free society.

    Then… this is no longer a free society? Oh, but it is… as long as you take as many vaxes as we can force you to take… and, by the way, don’t badmouth the vaxes. We will find out and we will deal with you. We’ll come for you. We’ll take away your access to banking. We’ll sic federal agencies on your case. You will become a non-person, perhaps an unperson! There, that’ll fix you!”

    This ethics/logic decision flowchart sums it up for me:

    Your point about central bank crypto is a good one, consider how well that fits in with the enforced compliance model of our fledgling social credit score system. Speak up against the government? Money gone. Regular UBI payments dependent on, well anything really, but firstly say for example, a vax. What else? As a non psychopath my imagination is far too limited to conceive what they’ll force on us next.

    Anime isn’t to everyone’s taste, but I highly recommend Psycho-pass (english subs on) as an example of life desperately trying to imitate art.

    1. “I wonder if perhaps freedom in Australia was always an illusion.”

      I think this is correct.
      Much of my current anger can be explained as cognitive dissonance. I thought I was living in a free country and amongst people who preferred it that way.

      Horrid to learn you’ve always been wrong.

      1. I was born there and I got it wrong, too.
        There were clues. Freedoms in Australia were routinely crushed during wartime, especially WWI.
        Still, the shock is a little like finding out one was abducted as a baby. Who the hell am I and who are these people around me?
        Among the people I still know in Australia, not a single one thinks anything is wrong.

        1. “Among the people I still know in Australia, not a single one thinks anything is wrong.”

          The polls and our anecdotal experience bear this out too. We have a small local network of people who haven’t gone insane but everyone else thinks there’s nothing to be concerned about with the police powers and compulsory vaccinations of newborns and long dead pets.

        2. One is reminded of the quote from Charles Mackay’s book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds: “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”

          1. That’s a great quote, thanks for sharing.
            I’ve been meaning to read that book since reading Douglas Murray’s with a similar title last year.

  2. If you replace the word “vaccine” in every sentence with “novel genetic therapy” since, the innoculations are at *best* vaccine-like your assessment is accurate.

    “Point deer, say horse.”

  3. It doesn’t matter what I think about the vaccine. However two guys from my school cohort recently died shortly after the jab. Two work colleagues died shortly after the jab and another has been on sick leave for four weeks now. My sister and her hubby both felt very under the weather for a week after their first shot. My cuz was sickly for two. I have COPD from the 2018 SARS epidemic. I consider that there is a good chance that the vaccine will kill me or aggravate my COPD. I am postponing it until I have no choice.

    1. The Israelis have a new anti-viral drug on its way which might help.

      Who knows though, it’s so hard to trust anything after all these lies.

    2. You may be able to get an exemption from a Dr. Where I work the scent of mandatory vax is in the air – a recent staff survey “to assist with planning” started out with a question on vax status. Then our CEO (compulsive liar and notable psychopath) sends out this:

      “Our complex times are mediated by the artefacts of the fourth industrial revolution, the challenges of being fair, accountable and responsible in an open, civil society and managing the impactful intersection of settlement densities with the natural world.”

      Klaus Schwab didn’t send it, but he might have written it.

      If I can’t get an exemption I will be unemployed.

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