Hanlon’s razor is a principle or rule of thumb that states “never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity”.
This describes my default position whenever I try to parse the statements of politicians. Only their words however, not their actions; the motivation behind these are usually painfully obvious as the trusty revealed versus expressed preferences test explains.
Politicians’ words are often a tricky minefield to navigate though. For example, should the public be wearing masks to combat the virus? Well, no AND yes and you’ll be fined if you don’t keep up with the changes.
Experience has taught me to use Hanlon’s Razor as a safe heuristic to quickly make sense of a politician’s pontificating. For a single statement made by a single politician, it’s rarely wrong. They’re all dumber than bag of hammers and usually a one off statement is simply that lack of intellect revealing itself in verbal form.
When several, seemingly unconnected, politicians make similar or even identical statements, we should probably consider being a little more sceptical of relying on Robert Hanlon’s shaving device.
For example; in the same 24 hour period, Boris Johnson claims lockdowns, not the world’s 2nd largest per capita vaccinated population, reduced deaths and Greg Hunt’s suggestion that, even if Australia ever got its shit together and vaccinated the population, we won’t be leaving the country for several years.
Well, aren’t we just living in a very connected world, eh? Two senior government officials on different sides of the globe decide to downplay the effectiveness of vaccines, one of whom has spent the previous 6 months reminding his country on a daily basis that “normality” would return once enough people had done their civic duty and had the vaccine.
Coincidence? Conspiracy? Collective incompetence? Cowardice?
Your guess is a good as mine.
The one thing we can probably bet the house on is we will not be getting on a plane to an overseas holiday or be welcoming friends and relatives from overseas any time soon, regardless of vaccination status, vaccination passports or any other factor.
Bill’s Opinion
There’s been too many of these coincidences to be ignored. From the lockstep changes over last year of every national leader’s position on masks, school closures, lockdowns, herd immunity, not overwhelming the hospitals and now the effectiveness of vaccinations, the pattern has become too obvious to be ignored.
Hanlon’s Razor suggests we should consider a kinder explanation before assuming bad intentions. My view on these frequent coincidences is now not that we have incompetent leaders, I’ve always assumed that, but they compound their stupidity with cowardice.
No democratic leader is going to risk being accused of having “blood on their hands” by returning those freedoms we used to believe were rights while there is a risk of a single death by this virus. Regardless of any other cost.
Lastly, if your income relies on incoming tourism or overseas visitors such as students, what would the rational response be to Greg Hunt’s latest statement?
Yep, close up and go do something, anything, else.
Up until now I’ve seen overwhelming support for draconian policies in surveys and comment sections. Most people want tighter lockdowns and completely sealed borders.
Finally, after Hunt’s suggestion that we permanently close borders, there was some serious pushback from The Age readers.
It’s fine working from home and leaving others stranded but the prospect of no longer enjoying Bali holidays was too much to bear.
I hope this will be the tipping point that makes pollies return to Planet Earth, but I’ve thought that several times before and been disappointed. All they need to do is drum up hysteria about yet another new strain and voters will demand to be imprisoned for another decade or two.
As for their motivation, I think lust for power sits alongside cowardice. It’s hard to imagine the corruption of power if you’re an ordinary man whose leadership positions have always come with a heavy burden of accountability, but across history, people have very often become power mad once they tasted too much of it. I think that’s what’s happened to our rulers, including medical apparatchiks. If they have mostly not gone power mad, that would be an anomoly requiring explanation.
No, it’s not because they’re worried about having “blood on their hands”; it’s because they’re evil and they want to destroy things. And there really is an evil cabal giving them orders.
A decade or so back, all the world’s leaders simultaneously decided that we had a moral duty to import millions of refugees. Did they all independently think about the morality of immigration and all, by pure coincidence, simultaneously come to the same completely batshit insane conclusions? No. The world’s “leaders” are middle managers taking orders from people whose names we don’t know.
You might be right that Hanlon’s razor still applies to politicians’ random statements, but concerning their actions, it is utterly clear that “never attribute to stupidity that which is adequately explained by malice” is now the correct rule. Hanlon’s razor got flipped 10 or 20 years ago. The people with real power are now selected for extreme malice.
I don’t understand why so many semi-redpilled writers like you still reject the obvious truth: our leaders have gone full-Evil. Their primary motivation is the destruction of everything Good. Their old motivations of money, status, and sex are increasingly falling away, replaced by pure spite, hatred of God, and desire for the permanent annihilation of their souls and all of ours. Everything they do makes perfect sense once you understand this.
Hi Johnny,
Some free mental health advice; you’ll feel a whole lot better when you accept telepathy is not currently possible. Once you’ve realised you’re unable to read other people’s minds, you can focus on dealing with their actions rather than your perception of their motivations.
Good luck.