….was a great album by ZZ Top. Their first

three albums are their best, however.

Tap, tap, is this thing on?

Apologies for the hiatus. I suspect, as for all of us, life has been a little strange recently. But I’m ok, and so is everyone I hold dear.

I hope you are also still close to the top of the Hierarchy of Kung Flu.

Over a month ago, we discussed the tacit scope creep that had occurred since the lockdown commenced.

If you recall, “flattening the curve” was the mission statement in order to not overwhelm the health services. Nobody in authority ever stated a policy of total elimination, probably because that’s a metric that’s guaranteed to be missed.

In the meantime, there’s been much handwringing in Australia at every new case that discovered, domestic borders closed, out of state visitors shunned, etc.

Reading the media, one could have been mistaken in thinking the tacit mission for a while back there was to get to zero cases.

Thank goodness then, somebody has said the quiet part out loud:

There, that wasn’t so hard, was it?

Bill’s Opinion

We’ve mentioned several times here that l:

1. The decision to close an economy is far easier than the subsequent decision to re-open it.

2. That decision was made using a cost/benefit analysis without really understanding the full costs.

The true costs are going to start revealing themselves soon. This report in the UK suggests 200,000 early deaths might occur as a consequence of lockdown, not Kung Flu.

Let’s hope it is wildly inaccurate, like all the other expert models we’ve been subject to recently.

Lastly, sorry again for the absence. I’ll get my mojo back now.

6 Replies to “Eliminator”

  1. Well here in South Africa we have an even better example of musical serendipity with Neil Young’s album and our past President both being named Zuma.

    The real problem with re-opening the economy is the amount of face that is going to be lost. Politicians who told us confidently that we’re all going to die, find that they need to extend the prognostication period to possibly a few decades so that the death threat becomes reality. Around the world only a few Nords, doctors really who are in government as well, have had the gonads to say, “Maybe we exaggerated just a tiny little bit.”

  2. Good to see you back, Bill, and glad all well. If I could be arsed, I’d have a crack at applying VSLs and QALYs et al using local data, but beyond a token face wash ahead of my morning Teams calls, who can summons the energy for extra-curricular activities these days… anyway, you’re far more gifted than me using Excel, so have a crack at this in between sips of some random tempranillo: https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/03/27/how-economists-calculate-the-costs-and-benefits-of-covid-19-lockdowns/#4b6ec2076f63

  3. 200k extra deaths in the UK?

    Not a chance. We have an NHS, and will not rest until death – his scythe broken and his black cloak flapping – has been chased from these shores.

  4. Women have depression. Men get in a funk. It appears from the protracted silence, while there is so much going on to blog about, that the Sage of Ockham is going through hard times. We’re guessing at loss of income, possibly loss of abode and possessions, possibly loss of spouse and children, in other words, a full-scale shit storm. Everyone handles that kind of disaster differently. Some say that adversity makes you stronger. Others reply, let me kick you in the knackers and will you still say that? Ask yourself, what is the worst that can possibly happen, accept that it has already happened, and take it from there with the only possible direction being up. Kalsarikännit is one option but you could be writing the Great Australian Covid Novel.

    1. None of the above MvdR…..

      I’m mainly watching, mouth open, at the madness unfolding and wondering where do I start writing about it.

      Also, there are several others doing a far better job of it than me.

      I promise to write something this week.

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