Predictions are notoriously difficult

…especially about the future.

But they are a fun diversion.

Here’s ten of mine for the year 2020. Feel free to add your own in the comments.

Australian Politics

Politicians of all sides of the aisle increase the warnings against reliance on China. There will be noises made by the Federal government to have closer trade and defence links with the USA (particularly following the USA election).

A Westpac executive is jailed for the AUSTRAC issues. Probably Lynn Cobley.

Global Politics

The UK will reach a WTO+ deal (ie closer to WTO terms than a full trade deal) with the EU and negotiations won’t be extended. Boris will call their bluff.

Congress won’t send the impeachment papers to the Senate. The GOP will make political hay about this all the way to the election.

Zeitgeist

Sentiment turns against Saint Greta. There’s a financial scandal involving her parents or handlers.

A judge in the USA finds a single mother of a transgender child guilty of abuse. The Supreme Court supports this finding on appeal.

Sport

Six Nations table:

1 England

2 Ireland

3 Wales

4 France

5 Scotland

6 Italy

Australia finishes bottom of the Rugby Championship table.

Economy

Gold to temporarily breach all time high ($1,895).

The Dow to breach 30,000.

6 Replies to “Predictions are notoriously difficult”

  1. You do like to make them though.

    Whichever way 2020 pans out all the best to you and your readers.

    Some of my supplement to your predictions as follows.

    I fear that we are more likely to see more black magic from witchcraft in action, from the likes of Greta over the year judging by the appointment of Sana Marin the rainbow daughter of two lesbians as the PM of Finland. So, more millennial’s screaming on the world stage, women at the helm and anti-family homosexuals in power is my bet.

    “Isaiah 3:12: Youths oppress my people, women rule over them. My people, your guides lead you astray; they turn you from the path.”

    On politics I expect to see a far stronger US/UK alliance and the the Anglo-American Establishment to show its strong hand more often following the UK election and Brexit. Australia being a self-governing colony will show that they know where their bread is buttered and will be firmly on board with this group when it comes to lines in the sand.

    The Chinese trade war will continue to shape up and will centre more so on the 5G tech boom and the emerging distinction of the Anglo web versus the Chinese web and 5G systems, including defense. The race for space and space wars will accelerate as well, Branson will make another motza.

    On the economy, we will continue to follow the US lead, no recession this year, low rates, QE and house price inflation.

    I am expecting a correction in the Dow Jones, although being an election year, Trump may well support it over the period in order to win office, if he manages to do so, then it will be delayed until 21. Not a GFC type correction, a mid-cycle one and not a land price cycle based one either, as the credit pumping is only going to get stronger from now on in. It will be big enough to frighten everyone and spook other international exchanges but will be short lived and a great buying opportunity. Like them all, it will come when least expected, maybe after a State of The Nation address where Trump has boasted about him being the best President for the Dow ever.

    On Westpac and the Big Four, they will start to lose market share at the margins to fintech start-ups that cherry pick their niche and not as a straight out “new bank” type competitor. Mostly in online lending, which is about to take off in Australia and the Buy Now Pay Later type payment methods. There will be increasing tension and a Mexican Standoff between the major superfunds that have invested their clients funds heavily in the Big Four, as to who blinks first and takes the money out of them and where do they reinvest it and will that trigger a shareholder rush to the exits if they do. For example, at the time of writing, lunch time on a holiday period where the ASX trading volumes are seasonally low, 1.4m shares in Westpac with a market cap of $84b have changed hands whereas 9.7m shares in Wizr an online lender with a market cap of $0.15b have changed hands!

    On sport, TNA’s legacy of the sporting correlation theory will continue to hold true.

    1. The Dow corrects 10-20% in bull markets as a matter of course.

      If we’re in a bull market, the AUD will rise, especially relative the the USD, regardless of what the RBA can throw at it to stop it. Which will be fun to watch.

      Inflation is back.

  2. Wrong, the Springboks will be bottom of the log. Our Glorious Leader has determined that all sporting bodies must be nationalised. Hint: look at our national soccer team which is already under political administration.

  3. A refreshing summation, I agree with much here and especially the remarks regarding the polarisation of opinions of various camps. The internet has fuelled this and is very devisive.
    Everybody calm down and let’s take a serious look at the facts, assuming we can find them in amongst all the noise!

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