Widening jaws, bouncing dead cats

We’ve not updated this for a couple of months:

Well, that’s certainly telling an interesting story, isn’t it?

Regarding the lending figures; prior to 2019, the monthly change had only previously fallen to 0.3% or lower three times since the 1970s. It had never fallen as low as 0.1% until this October and November.

Market volumes must surely be playing a part in this picture.

Bill’s Opinion

Despite the voices claiming all is well and there’s never been a better time to buy, the lending data is flashing a red warning sign.

Unless buyers have found a new, magical source of capital, this recovery is likely to be short-lived.

My personal view is, stay out of this market until at least three consecutive months’ lending change figures above 0.3%.

2 Replies to “Widening jaws, bouncing dead cats”

  1. I remember reading somewhere recently that job advertisements were down 15% on last year.

    People can’t buy houses without jobs.
    People move in with other family or friends if they have been without work for 4+ months.
    People go to other countries when the prospects of wealth in Australia look poor.
    Australia would have a fairly mild and short recession because it’s exceptional in many ways

  2. The best time to buy was many years ago but every day is a good day to buy a property.

    If you were in the market for a property then the only reason to hold off on buying one now would be in the hope that the likely increased in supply slows down the rate of price inflation. Although according to the most historically accurate forecast that we have are showing a base case for Sydney prices rising by up to 14% in 2020.

    Based on the last cycle I cant see price rises slowing down much in Sydney up until say 2023 when affordability will impact buyer sentiment and prices will go sideways, whilst the other states and regional Australia prices continue to grow right up until the top in 2026.

    https://ibb.co/MkDn3fg

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