Of Brexperts and telepaths

As oft quoted here, “predictions are notoriously difficult, particularly about the future“.

The Dilbert cartoonist, Scott Adams, seems to have a knack at predicting stuff. After a particularly good run of predictions, he wrote this remarkable piece of advice to people who were going mad about the Orange Man winning the election.

His suggestion is, if you didn’t predict many of the 15 events he lists, perhaps a moment of introspection is warranted.

Building on that theme, I’d like to offer something similar on the subject of Britain’s exit from the EU. I’ve noticed in multiple conversations recently, people who have little knowledge of the subject have explained to me my reasons for voting Leave.

Not content with mere telepathy, they also offer multiple predictions of what will happen next.

If this describes you, may I suggest reviewing the following list of statements:

  1. Brexit is about immigration and racism. Anyone who claims controlling immigration was simply one of multiple reasons is a lying racist. Any brown people who voted Leave are a modern day “Uncle Tom” or suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.
  2. Immediately following a Leave vote, the UK economy will be plunged into recession, as predicted by The Treasury.
  3. In the weeks following a Leave vote, the Chancellor of the Exchequer would be forced to implement a punitive emergency budget.
  4. The result of the referendum will be accepted and implemented by MPs.
  5. Following Brexit, the UK will be at the back of the queue (note, not “line”, as Americans usually describe it) for any trade deal with the USA. Presumably that’s because the UK’s “U” is later in the alphabet than Somalia’s “S”?.
  6. The EU is simply a trading block and has no plans to further expand the scope of its powers to include such things as creating a military arm, conformation of taxes, and centralised control (and distribution) of immigration to the EU.
  7. A Prime Minister who voted Remain would be a good choice to negotiate an exit from the EU and to heal the political divisions created by the referendum.
  8. The UK and Ireland will implement disruptive checks at the Northern Irish border crossings (all 300 of them).
  9. Boris Johnson’s political career is dead following his abortive leadership attempt.
  10. Boris Johnson is a buffoon with an IQ barely above room temperature and will never become Prime Minister.

Bill’s Opinion

Be honest with yourself. How many of those did you read in your preferred source of current affairs news and accepted at face value at some point in the previous three years?

If you believed more than, say, 3 of the 10, please try to listen a little longer to people you meet who voted Leave.

Also, consider taking the time to review the following statements and determine whether you agree with me that these are looking increasingly likely. Not guaranteed, mind you, but that the probability is trending towards them becoming reality.

  1. When negotiating, one always needs to have a credible BATNA. Boris Johnson has made solid noises to this effect now and the EU may reconsider their position as a consequence. The UK will leave on October 31st, regardless.
  2. There will be no hard border on the island of Ireland. A mix of random and targeted checks will occur but trade will continue relatively free of friction.
  3. Following a “no deal” Brexit, there will be slightly worse problems than those caused by the Millennium Bug. Other than a few pictures in the Liverpool Echo of sad, orange Scousers complaining about minor disruptions to “dream holidays”, and individual daft actions justified “because of Brexit”, everyone will carry on just fine.
  4. A couple of years after an uneventful “no deal” Brexit, several other EU members will have elected pro-Leave leaders. France would be first cab off the rank, if I had to guess.
  5. Five years after Brexit, the UK’s GDP will be significantly healthier than Germany’s and any other EU member.

The value of money is merely a concept enough of us have agreed to believe (or at least pretend to believe). The paper with printed pictures and numbers in your wallet only has worth because a critical mass of us agree it has. If we lose confidence in the currency, it loses value.

Democracy is a very similar concept.

13 Replies to “Of Brexperts and telepaths”

  1. You done well consolidating the list, one other biggie and I heard this a lot is that the the people didn’t know what they were voting for. I counter that it would equally apply to both sides of the voting camp.

    And lets not forget in all these voluminous analysis that the voting card was quit simple:

    “Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU?”

    Which had absolutely nothing to do with an oxen cart leaving the Ulster Plantations.

    Is there a chance that if it looks like its going “no deal” that the parliament can still scuttle Brexit with a no confidence vote on BoJo and call a GE or some other similar type of skulduggery?

  2. Just looked into how BoJo coul avoid an anti-Brexit no deal move by Parliament.

    He can simply just prorogue the fuck out of them (shut parliament down) at the time the No Deal is to be done and take it to Queenie to sign off on it, which they say she must do if the PM recommends it to her!

    He may lose his head for that one, but he will have succeeded in his mission.

    1. Yes, I think that’s it. I’m no expert on parliamentary process though.

      I expect Bercow will bend the rules hard to help the Remainers, which is a big unknown.

      If you want to see the definition of hypocrisy, search for the interview with John Major claiming to porogue would be unconstitutional. He did it himself to avoid “cash for questions” issues.

  3. Brexit aside, you would think that a quick resolution with Iran ie boats back each way, would have to be low hanging fruit for the new PM. Trump would probably be happy with that outcome as well. Plus no one in the EU counts on this score either, it is a straight up Iran/UK issue with an overarching US interest. Potential big win for BoJo with a watch out EU, we are serious here and keeps good relations with Iran and US.

    1. That’s another great example of how people ignore their failed predictions; Trump was supposed to be the next Hitler, taking America into irresponsible conflicts.

      It must be quite strange to have to reconcile that position with his reluctance to commit to military action in response to Iran’s aggression.

      But yes, it feels like “money on the table” for a British PM and American President who are willing to seek a solution. It’s worked for Trump and North Korea.

      The difference between North Korea and Iran though is one can’t see the personal flattery approach working for a mad mullah.

  4. They said that BoJo played the wrong hand pre-appointment when he said he wouldn’t discuss the backstop, that he would have to concede early on this to re-establish talks with his EU opponent. Seems to be sticking by his guns, says that there is no point in talking to them if they want to make it about the backstop.

    Turn the table around. Imagine for a moment that you had a client group with 67 million buyers, you had your client bluffed that they needed you and not the other way around. Then they changed their client rep and the new one said, we are fine thanks and no need for that meeting anymore. Our guys will continue to buy things from your group if it makes commercial sense to do so, hope you can make it to the next suppliers convention, let me know if you are attending and I will come to your booth to look at your offerings.

    So far so good, having wound up the Jocks including their Tories that already said that they hate him, I would love a job like that, now off to the west country or should I say Wales today, to wind them up as well. I wonder when he is going to Belfast, for some storming in Stormont, wouldn’t it be great if the Reverend Ian Paisley was still around to heckle him as he did the Pope.

    We have to be careful here with getting lulled into a false situation where we think that it makes any difference as to who is a nations political leader. My skeptical side says that it has been decided how Brexit and BoJo will pan out, by those that decide on these kind of things.

  5. Just had my morning coffee and enjoyed reading the update from Bojo’s travels or as some allege Hustings.

    BoJo told the Welsh leader, cant recall his name, that Taffy was a Welshman, Taffy was a thief, that the Old Bill was going to reopen the investigation into the cottage burnings, that the Welsh language was nothing more than Druid mumbo jumbo and that they were ruled by Prince Big Ear Charles and therefore had no say in Brexit. Welsh lambs and chickens complained that the price of them dead would now be less under BoJo a devaluation which they were most indignant about.

    Elsewhere, he continued his diplomatic introductions with his friendly neighbours and told Paddy Varadakar that he was nothing more than a Celtic mongrel dog and that if he cared to look at recent history he would find that the UK won the last war and he had better keep that in mind before he opens his trap and says one more thing about the North. Yes the six counties did in fact remain in the UK, the IRA handed in their weapons and are virtually defunct and they fucking lost big time, paddy boy!

    BoJo’s traitorous war on his own kind and now arch rival moneyed elite, continued abated as he personally crashed the British Peso.

  6. When pressed on the claims that a No Deal Brexit could amount to disgruntled Welshmen taking to the valleys in protest, Ben Wallace BoJo’s new Defence Secretary said ”Aye, we heard about that, the timing is convenient as our Welsh SAS training center have been running short of target practice of late”.

    Meanwhile and on a brighter side one of the unintended consequences of BoJo’s recent appointment, is the sudden awakening of the leader of the British working class from his slumber. A reinvigorated Mr Corbyn has seemingly seized the moment and reinvented himself as a modern day Keir Hardie in marshaling and calling the working class to arms in confronting this BoJo Tory menace head on, once and for all.

    See the inspired and charismatic Mr Corbyn mobilizing and unifying raggedly dressed workers, unemployed and homeless in the growing and perhaps unstoppable call to action in the newly radicalized working class and blighted areas of Lancashire yesterday.

    https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/9dae6adc06421dd4c1d9efbe1d235e637a4eb7e3/0_184_6720_4032/master/6720.jpg?width=780&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=533354f1a96f071523e8ff75f339664b

  7. What about the poor emaciated, unkempt hair, unwashed and feral child behind the kettle spout, doesn’t anyone care for the children anymore, are things really that bad up north these days?

    Plus Corbyn’s body language, left hand (shield hand) across his chest shielding him and holding on tightly to his right hand, his good hand (sword hand), he is in a defensive poise here and subconsciously shielding himself from attack, which is a sign of his inferiority and weakness to that of the half naked white witch that may have been casting a spell on or poisoning him.

    Then there is the question of what it says on Corbyn’s mug in his right hand, his sword, is it LITTLE or LITTER?

  8. BoJo’s last stop of the launch of his election campaign across the Union, in Belfast saw a welcome boost to his campaign promises. Unlike the jocks and the taffs, the local unionists bolstered BoJo and confirmed their steadfast support for a United Kingdom and were the first on the hustings to call out the current brouhaha as nothing more than Project Fear II.

    On the border issue, the cross dressing Reverend Arlene Paisley of the unionists had one message for Dublin, keep out of the North or the only thing that will be coming across the border will be bullets.

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