Great news for the global economy!

Kevin Rudd is predicting economic doom.

There are very few certainties in life beyond death and taxes but one can make a solid fortune by betting against any economic prediction offered by the former Australian Prime Minister.

No, not that former Prime Minister, or that one, or that one, or that one, or that one, this one just died, but this one who was fired from the job…..hilariously twice.

We can’t be certain that his woeful predictions are due to incompetence or whether he’s got the McGrath-Bouris merdeus touch (everything they touch turns to shit) of being able to pull suckers in to their scheme of handing over wealth.

After all, this is the Prime Minister who had such a poor understanding of basic supply and demand that he unintentionally opened up an entire murderous business opportunity for Indonesian people smugglers to sell unseaworthy end of life fishing boats to Africans make a perilous thousand mile journey.

He also oversaw the Australian response to the 2008 global financial crisis which, arguably postponed what could have been a minor domestic recession to something with the potential to be much worse in the near future. But hey, people got a new TV and some house insulation out of it.

Reading Rudd’s opinion piece today reminds us of the gaping intellectual hole that has been left in Australian political life by his quiet and statesmanlike retirement;

This time last month, I was having breakfast with a Chinese friend in Chengdu, the prosperous provincial capital of Sichuan, discussing the increasingly toxic US-China relationship.

Not just a friend, but a Chinese friend, because he’s Kevin Rudd, Mandarin-speaker extraordinaire.

As for the increasingly-toxic US-China relationship, relative to what? Pre-Nixon in China, days? The years immediately following Tiananmen Square?

Well, if things are toxic now, viva toxicity because the two countries are fairly deeply linked these days.

Rudd can’t help himself by chucking in a little bitterness at his opponents;

Mysteriously these also happened to be the headlines in every newspaper in China that day. I hadn’t seen such editorial discipline since Murdoch’s coverage of the Australian elections.

This is worth looking at in more detail for a quick diversion. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, the NewsCorp (Murdoch) titles don’t attract as many eyes as the Sydney Morning Herald. And that’s before we count the various media outlets of the ABC, the Guardian, and most other media outlets landing to the left.

Frankly, any left of centre Prime Ministerial candidate who fails to win an election when the majority of the media is on their side ought to have a good long look at themselves in the mirror. Being a famous narcissist, Rudd looks in the mirror more than most, yet struggles with self-awareness.

Back to Rudd’s panic about the trade war…

His hypothesis is that China has reached the end of their patience and will not offer anything more in negotiations:

My prediction is that the Osaka G20 Summit will see a “reboot” to the negotiating process. And after Osaka, Trump will yield on the first two of China’s new red lines. And Xi will increase the quantum of the proposed Chinese purchasing agreement from China’s previous offer, although not by as much as Trump has demanded. That way, enough face will be saved all around.

Bill’s Opinion

Kevin Rudd knows a lot about China, he has a greater Mandarin vocabulary and speaks with a better dialect than anyone I know who isn’t ethnically Chinese.

His knowledge and understanding of negotiation, supply and demand and matters commercial have been demonstrated, at Australian taxpayers’ chagrin and expense, to be disastrous, however.

Fortunately, few of our failures cost lives. Unfortunately, Kevin Rudd’s poor grasp of basic human nature and economics has cost millions of dollars and hundreds of lives.

Maybe China will back down, maybe they won’t. It’s more likely they will though since Mr. Rudd is convinced otherwise.

The Australian 26th and 28th Prime Minister, brought to you by Dunning and Kruger.

15 Replies to “Great news for the global economy!”

  1. I didn’t read it as Rudd predicting economic doom, more like a change in the balance of power between US-Sino negotiating positions. He said it was 50/50 on a trade deal being done. So to me he was sitting on the fence on a deal being done and was highlighting the growing power of China in the world with respect to it’s bargaining power with the US, in the Asian century.

    Both of which are pretty safe things to say, so no great insight offered, just stating the obvious.

    I do think that Trump being in an election cycle would suggest that a deal will be done, lets hope so, if not, then I will be moving into the Australian recession camp.

    1. “I do think that Trump being in an election cycle would suggest that a deal will be done, lets hope so, if not, then I will be moving into the Australian recession camp.”

      Roll that situation forward a few months though. Let’s say Trump doesn’t roll over and get his tummy tickled. China will have to erase Rudd’s red lines.

      It’s just a negotiation, it’s not the end of the world.

      In related news, there’s a million Chinese in concentration camps that nobody is paying much attention to, Rudd included.

      1. Just saying that if Trump sneezes on this particular one, it will have a major negative economic impact on Australia. In which case I will have something in common with Folau, he doesn’t get to set a new try scoring record and I don’t get to attend the thirty years of continuous growth speech, although he chose martyrdom and I didn’t.

        If its the camps in Xinjiang that you are referring to, maybe he knows that its western propaganda?

        1. Let’s face it, Australia is a cork on the global economy’s ocean. We’d save a stink load by disestablishing the RBA and not notice the difference.

          1. Absolutely and a very high net worth cork at that, just another one of our glowing quality attributes. Far better to be a rich Aussie than a poor citizen of a big economy nation.

            I am not a member of the current lets bash up the RBA camp, I haven’t done the analysis either, but I doubt our banking system could operate without it. From am armchair viewpoint, I will stick with the worlds central bankers view that we are the darling economy of the developed world and the RBA’s stewardship should be given credit for our stellar economic performance. Bob Hawke did the heavy lifting and the RBA supported it and Krudd for whats its worth, he did well in staving of a recession that we didn’t need to have.

          2. Sending $900 cheques to dead people the year after the GFC does NOT save a country from the GFC.
            Rudd did nothing to help.
            Thank God he was so inept in his “help” that he didn’t do any more damage.

  2. From where I am sitting that’s $900 better spent than any other state enterprise. I would much rather not give my hard earned to the state but giving it directly to a consumer is the least wasteful use of it.

    1. “It’s not as big a waste as it could be”
      This is not the same meaning as “money well spent”
      and certainly not the same as “this sure saved Australia’s economic bacon”

      Rudd was a dudd.

        1. Helicopter money is better than make work money.

          Helicopter money is effectively a tax break for the poor. If they spent $300 on booze, $300 on drugs and $300 on the pokies it’s far more productive for the economy than a state enterprise such as building a new sport stadium.

          State enterprise on infrastructure that improves amenity, does have a benefit though as it increases the value of the adjacent land which benefits landowners.

          So in order of preference, its reduce taxes, state funded infrastructure, helicopter money and lastly make work schemes.

      1. I don’t live in Utopiia, I didn’t vote for Rudd, he was my local member, most did not see the GFC coming, this is where we all found ourselves to be.

        I don’t believe anyone that tells me that a recession is a good thing, far from it, every single western govt threw the kitchen sink and helicoptered in money to try and prevent a recession, most failed, Krudd didn’t and economic misery was avoided.

        So for the same outgoing to me, he played a big part in avoiding a recession, which would have been bad for my net worth.

        Most informed economic commentators agree that the fact that Aussie dodged one was impressive.

        I have a property in regional Queensland that is located next to two schools that were extended and a colleague of mine was the partner and the lead defence in the firm that successfully defended the terrible roof insulation fatality. He shouted a big dinner for me and some others when he rightfully protected the employer and won the case.

        Krudd done well in staving off a recession, is my view, and that is how he will be remembered in economic circles.

        Would you like to see the RBA present a thirty years of economic growth speech or would you have preferred it stopped 10 years ago with all the financial downside and misery that it would have caused?

        Krudd would be right, he doesn’t need the money, his missus is a multi.

        1. …most did not see the GFC coming…

          Barnaby Joyce & Peter Costello did – & Barnaby lost his job as shadow finance minister for making such a doofus forecast.

          Rudd’s $900 giveaway to dead people (& people in Greece) came a year after any stimulus was remotely required.

          Rudd is a dudd.

          1. Christ, I’ve just tried listening the Jolly Swagman podcast interview with Rudd. He is the most pompous, self-unaware, narcissistic who doesn’t work in Hollywood.

            He might have a really interesting insight but unfortunately I can’t listen to him talk without wanting to chew my own eyelids off.

          2. I have met him a few times, not a very personable bloke at all. The first time was back in the days when you used to buy a Sunday newspaper, I bought mine and was walking home past his church, he came out and it was the morning after he won the election, shook his hand and was all over national telly, he has a wet fish handshake as well.

  3. Keep in mind that Rudd is likely shut out of the gravy train of consultancy money connected to China.
    Anything he says has to be viewed from that perspective.
    The man would like some of that money (& status)
    He’ll be trying anything he can think of in a (fruitless) attempt to get back into their good books.

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