Introducing the “Are we there yet, Mum?” Index

In case you haven’t realised it already, the organisations that most loudly proclaim their “Independent. Always” credentials are, in fact, some of the worst peddlers of fake news. At best, there is a distinct lack of critical thinking when it comes to reporting what clearly vested interests are pitching. No-one is really looking for the dog that isn’t barking……

Worse, there are people out there heavily-invested in certain outcomes yet being interviewed and given publicity as if they were a credible information source; Stephen Koukalous, for example, long property much?

The epitome of this Lord Haw Haw mentality is the Doctor of Property himself, Andrew Wilson, a man with so little credibility, Fairfax fired him.

Two recent outputs from this mendacious fool have prompted the creation of the “Are we there yet, Mum?” index;

Firstly, this one where he claims prices have bottomed because the median price at auction didn’t fall significantly since the previous week. Just re-read that again slowly…… (by the way, I’m pretty sure he edited this from an earlier version that even claimed prices were on the rise – if anyone can confirm my suspicions, I’d be grateful).

And this one where he claims a high auction clearance rate despite the glaring problem that only 55% of results were reported;

Therefore, readers who are interested or mildly bemused by the current “completely unpredictable” housing bust occurring in Australia may enjoy this new monthly feature.

William of Ockham’s “Are we there yet, Mum?” index.

This is a collection of public data, which is intended to illustrate the bottom of the Sydney housing market, when it arrives.

The datasets used are as follows;

Housing credit source: RBA
Monthly indices source: Core Logic
Auction data source: Core Logic

The last one was created by looking back on the Core Logic website for the final print of weekly auction data. I stopped at August last year but will continue collecting it while on a dull conference call. Of course, if anyone has access to an Excel version of the back series, please do let me know and I”ll drop that into the chart.

These charts will be updated monthly, probably just after the RBA credit change data is published.

Any debate or discussion on dataset chosen, interpretations or additions/modifications are welcome in the comments section.

(note: there are 4 to 5 weeks in December and January where auctions volumes are too low for Core Logic to bother reporting).

9 Replies to “Introducing the “Are we there yet, Mum?” Index”

  1. Excellent viewing in those graphs. Housing credit change has got me transfixed after checking out the data-set.

    Check out that RBA data-set since September 1976, when it started. Here are the total number of occasions that the monthly credit growth has been 0.3% or below:
    Jun-2012 0.3
    Aug-2012 0.3
    Oct-2012 0.3
    Dec-2012 0.3
    Oct-2018 0.3
    Nov-2018 0.3
    Dec-2018 0.3
    Jan-2019 0.2

    1. Yes, I guessed it would be something as rare as that.

      I’m looking for the three or four KPIs that cut through the pundits’ bullshit.

      Credit change and price change seems to have a solid causal relationship. I’m surprised that chart isn’t readily available somewhere else.

      Actually, I’m not surprised at all.

  2. Just thinking out loud, what do you think about a weekly ratio of Number of Reported Auctions versus Number of Listed Auctions for Sydney?

    Fake Auction Ratio, Sydney is Exemplary (FARSE)

    Example from Domain Sat March 2nd:

    Number Listed Auctions: 587 (divided by) Number Reported Auctions: 320 = FARSE score of 1.83

    If the number of listed auctions is the same as reported auctions then the score is 1.

    I was trying to make the acronym FART or FARKD

    1. It’s a great idea.

      Is it possible to get the back series in digital form though? It only makes sense to report the true auction ratio if you can compare it to the data on the way up as well as down.

  3. With the auction clearance rates if you can accept that the jiggery pokery is consistent each week, then its best to juts look at the difference if you are trying to extract something meaningful form it. That what the clever dudes do.

    The buyers window will remain open for the rest of the years down south.

    And better luck next week out there on the hustings to, Bill.

    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

    First-home buyer narrowly misses out on Rozelle terrace that sold for more than $2.3 million

    https://www.domain.com.au/news/first-home-buyer-narrowly-misses-out-on-rozelle-terrace-that-sold-for-more-than-2-3-million-806010/

    1. Thanks. I was sailing, actually.

      If I had a cool $2.3m kicking around, Rozelle would not be where I spent it. All the negatives of living in Sydney and none of the positives.

      Seriously, there are dozens of areas in Sydney where I reckon there are people living there because it’s near where they grew up and haven’t ever spotted there’s far nicer, safer, convenient areas for the same or less money.

      1. I dont doubt that you will be able to find the right type of house in the right setting for you more so than the average Sydneysider. I dont know why the average person would try to though, it really is a tough city as far as getting from A to B and being bale to start up in a decent gaff. It always has been but if anything I would say that it is getting harder with time.

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