We’ve always been at war with the Eurasia Group

The usually sound Ambrose Evans Pritchard regurgitates a press release from the Eurasia Group risk report in the Telegraph (Sydney Morning Herald paywall avoidable version here);

The answer to questions like this in headlines is almost always, “No, you’re just trying to get eyeballs“.

Oh, that’s worrying.

By that I mean, it’s worrying that the UN isn’t also in the list of global institutions past their sell-by dates that are in crisis. In the words of Saint Augustine, “Oh Lord! Make me pure, but not yet!“.

Bloody hell, we’re almost on the brink of another world war? There’s no way the government will allow that, just think what it would do to their plans for annual skiing holidays and the values of their Caribbean villas.

It all sounds very worrying though, whatever might be the cause?

Ah, it’s just another #OrangeManBad #LiterallyHitler article.

One of these political thinktank pieces isn’t compete without an economic prediction, of course;

Sure, the EU is going to have a few challenges ahead, especially if the UK is lucky enough to exit without a deal and gets to keep the £39bn ransom, but we’re heading for deflation, are we?

Given that the USA inflation figures for 2018 were 2.54% and projected to be ~2.44% this year, I wouldn’t go holding one’s breath for it to turn negative. Something like a meteor strike would have to happen in 2019 to turn that into deflation.

Oh goodeee, another article telling us the reason why we voted to leave the EU.

Personally, it was Magna Carta, 800+ years of Common Law, legislative sovereignty, the right to determine our own immigration laws and the fact that calling 73 MEPs for a population of 67m “democracy” seems like a sicker joke than anything Louis CK could come up with. But no, Eurasia Group, do tell us why we voted Brexit.

As for the problems between China and the USA, yes sure China is not running as hot as before (-16% sales of smartphones was an interesting recent data point), however, Xi looks to be trying to rapidly build bridges with Trump. It’s almost as if, I dunno, Trump’s strategy is working. Perish the thought.

So, after you’ve scared us half to death, what’s the chances of any of this happening?

“Muddle through”.

We do like a good old fashioned muddle.

Bill’s Opinion

As you were, platoon. We’ll be just fine.

6 Replies to “We’ve always been at war with the Eurasia Group”

  1. You never know if Ambrose Evans Pritchard is writing the news or making it. After all he did stitch up Bill Clinton, I wouldn’t want him on my case, if ever there was a crown agent that doubles as journo our Ambrose would be a prime candidate.

    But as to the wheels falling of this year, I doubt it.

    US JOBS REPORT SMASHES EXPECTATIONS: 312,000 jobs added, wages grow at fastest pace since 2009

    German Unemployment Falls Despite Mounting Risks to Economy

    Massages and free fish help east Europe tackle labor shortages

    Japan to Asia: Give us your young, your skilled, your eager workers

    British employment level at an all-time high, with news widely welcomed

    Stock buybacks hit a record $1.1 trillion, and the year’s not over

    1. Unusually, I agree with you on all points.

      The Torygraph is the paper of choice for “Five” and “Six” to drop stories to, after all.

      Almost zero chance of a USA recession this year. Some developing nations in the Southern hemisphere might come close, especially if you have to liquidate some of your investment property portfolio to pay for the divorce, though.

      1. I am a little more bullish than you for this year.

        I think our economy might even pip this years growth rate, which hasn’t been published yet, but it will definitely start with a three.

        Jobs should continue to improve, resulting in further wage growth to such a extent that some inflation appears and maybe a rate rise by years end or early next year.

        The all ordinaries index is undervalued and well due for a long term rally this year and will finish the year higher.

        The Aussie will end the year higher than it did in 2018.

        Yes the housing mid-cycle slump is here, the last buying opportunity for southern bears to get on the ladder, either now or forget it for the next ten years.

        Land prices everywhere will continue to rise but at a slower pace than 2018.

        It is not unusual for some disasters to occur at mid cycle stage, worlds largest IPO like Uber or something being a disaster, plus after man years in construction there are many of the tallest buildings due to open this year and next year, that normally signals a downturn.

        The downturn will appear, but 2020 is the risk year although it wont be a serious one and it wont be a land price cycle based one, that aint due for another seven years after the mother of all run ups has occurred between now and then. Which is going to be like Northern Rock on steroids when it gets going.

        1. “…the last buying opportunity for southern bears”.

          Yes, I intend to. It will be later than you think though, I suspect. I have been in this situation twice before so feel confident about watching the signs to time it right. Capitulation is a great emotion to see on a seller’s face.

          1. Well best of luck with it, in my books if its a house to live in and you know what you are doing then any day is a good day to buy one.

            The other thing is, with low auction clearance rates and falling medians, the number of sales is down, so just don’t expect to see a rush for the exits in an environment where Sydney has the lowest unemployment in forty years. It’s more like “a rush to the, oh I am not prepared to sell my gaff for that, take it off the market” stage.

            Unless of course you are making a cheeky $50k cash offer for a penthouse in the Opal Tower.

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